Layover Risk Estimator

Check how likely you are to miss your connection. Adjust the sliders and toggles, then read your risk level and next steps.

Scenario presets

Layover time (minutes)

Airport size

Small regional e.g., Boise, Burlington Medium hub e.g., Denver, Seattle Large international e.g., Atlanta, Heathrow

Travel details

Checked bags (adds 10–15 min at claim) Terminal change (adds walking/transit time) Traveling with kids or need assistance International connection (passport check)

Low risk Moderate High risk

Moderate risk

Score: 40/100

You have a fair chance of making this connection, but a short delay could cause problems. Look at terminal maps ahead of time and let the flight crew know you have a tight connection.

How to read your risk score

The risk score runs from 0 (almost no chance of missing the flight) to 100 (very likely to miss it). The estimator adds penalty points for tight time, large airports, terminal changes, checked bags, kids, and passport checks.

Example walkthroughs

Denver, 55 minutes, no bags. You land at a medium hub with a single terminal layout. Even a 20-minute delay leaves you 35 minutes to walk to the next gate. Risk score around 25. This is a reasonable connection.

Atlanta, 50 minutes, terminal change, checked bag. You need to reclaim bags, re-clear security, and take the train to another concourse. Risk score around 75. Book a longer layover or carry on your bag.

Frankfurt, 90 minutes, international arrival, kids. Passport control lines can be long. Moving through a large terminal with children slows you down. Risk score around 55. Plan for 120 minutes if possible.

Common mistakes

Assuming the gate will be close. Large airports can require a 20-minute walk or a train ride between gates.
Forgetting about boarding time. Most airlines close the door 10–15 minutes before departure.
Booking separate tickets on a short layover. If you miss the second flight, the airline will not rebook you for free.
Ignoring time of day. Afternoon thunderstorms and evening congestion increase delay risk at many hubs.

What to double-check

Your airline's official minimum connection time for the airport.
Whether your flights are in the same terminal.
If you need to collect and recheck bags (common on separate tickets or international-to-domestic connections).
The on-time performance of your first flight. Search the flight number on a flight tracking site.

Printable layover checklist

Check the airline's minimum connection time for this airport.
Look up a terminal map. Note the walking path between your arrival and departure gates.
Confirm whether you need to go through security again.
Pack essentials (medication, charger, change of clothes) in your carry-on in case bags are delayed.
Tell a flight attendant about your tight connection before landing.
Have your boarding pass and passport ready before you deplane.
Know the rebooking policy for your ticket type.

Why this project exists

Most travel booking sites show a connection time and a warning icon, but they do not explain the real factors that make a layover risky. This estimator gives you a quick, private way to check those factors without signing up or sharing your trip details. It is a worksheet, not a prediction engine. Use it to compare options, ask better questions when booking, and pack a little more peace of mind.

Last updated: March 2026. This page works offline and does not collect any data.